Industry and
Investment Research

The complete SSR Health research archive is available exclusively to registered clients and subscribers. For access, please contact us below. Subscribers who would prefer PDF versions of reports should contact us for complimentary copies.

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Industry and Investment Research

The complete SSR Health research archive is available exclusively to registered clients and subscribers. For access, please contact us below. Subscribers who would prefer PDF versions of reports should contact us for complimentary copies.

Subscribe

Contact Us

• 2019
• 2018

• 2017
• 2016

• 2015
• 2014

• 2013
• 2012

• 2011
• 2010

• 2009

• 2019
• 2018
• 2017
• 2016
• 2015
• 2014
• 2013
• 2012
• 2011
• 2010
• 2009

2019

2019

August 6, 2019 – The Prescription Drug Pricing Reduction Act (PDPRA)

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May 30, 2019 – US Brand Rx net prices fall 4.1 percent in 1Q19; politics further decelerate list pricing gains, and expanding co-pay accumulator programs outrun manufacturers’ defenses

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April 23, 2019 – Medicare for All: Why it Can’t Happen … Yet

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April 1, 2019 – ANTM, CI, UNH: Have the commercial-predominant HMOs peaked?

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March 18, 2019 – US Rx net prices fall 4.8 percent y/y in 4Q18; 2019 net price declines may worsen with expansion of co-pay accumulator program

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February 18, 2019 -AMGN/MDCO/REGN/SNY: PCSK9 Pricing Update

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February 6, 2019 -Rebate safe harbor proposed rule – Impact limited to Medicare and Medicaid MCOs; Commercial Rx sales likely unaffected

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January 16, 2016 – Moving WMT out of CVS’ retail pharmacy networks makes no obvious sense

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January 4, 2019 – BMY/CELG – Patents-based pipeline analysis implies NEWCO more than 40 percent undervalued

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2018

2018

December 17, 2018 – Overturned in the Northern District of Texas, the ACA Heads to the 5th Circuit, and Perhaps to SCOTUS

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December 12, 2018 – US Rx Net Prices Fall 5.1 percent (real) in 3Q18

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November 19, 2018 – AMZN & OMI: Two Birds, One Stone?

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November 4, 2018 – The International Pricing Index (IPI), and Who’s Most Affected (AMGN, Roche, UCB)

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October 28, 2018 – AMGN’s Clever Curveball

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October 8, 2018 – AMRN: Priced for Perfection 

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September 25, 2018 – Co-Pay Accumulators: Analysis of Company Level Effects

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September 20, 2018 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View

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September 11, 2018 – The Co-Pay Accumulator Playbook

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September 4, 2018 – US Rx Brand Prices Fall 5.8 percent

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August 8, 2018 – Prescription Drug Rebates and the AKS Safe Harbor

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July 19, 2018 – AMZN v. Traditional Pharmacy (PBM, Drug Retail, Drug Wholesale) = Netflix v. Blockbuster. Here’s Why

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July 10, 2018 – US Drug Pricing: A Closer Look at Removing the 100 percent Limit on Medicaid Rebates

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June 18, 2018 – Rx brand US net pricing as of 1Q18: Analysis of company level patterns

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June 4, 2018 – U.S. Rx Brand Pricing Fell 5.6 percent (real) in 1Q18 – Blame Co-Pay Accumulators

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May 15, 2018 – The White House on Drug Pricing: “There’s a press event Friday, give me every idea you’ve got”

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April 22, 2018 – BMY, MRK, and 1st-line NSCLC: Estimating patient shares in the wake of Keynote-189 and Checkmate-227

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April 17, 2018 – Co-Pay Accumulators: Who’s Most at Risk (ABBV, GILD, UCBJY, ALIOY, AMGN); Manufacturers’ Options for Limiting Their Effect

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April 3, 2018 – WMT/HUM: Quick First Read Shows Little Compelling Benefit

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March 28, 2018 – US Rx brand real net pricing fell 1.1 percent in 4Q17; update and analysis of company outliers

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March 20, 2018 – AMGN/REGN/SNY: Top-line ODYSSEY results do not show a mortality benefit

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February 26, 2018 – BIVV/Roche/SHPG/NVO: Hemlibra global sales potential $3.0 – $5.2B; reduces global factor VIII demand by 25-55%, bypass agent demand by 90+%

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February 8, 2018 – BMY/MRK: Why CM227 is very good news for BMY, and not such bad news for MRK

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February 5, 2018 – NVO/LLY: Ozempic (semaglutide) resets the bar for glycemic efficacy; consensus GLP-1 expectations appear too low

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January 30, 2018 – AMZN, BRK.A/.B, and JPM Look Set to Fire (or at least seriously trim back the roles of) Their Healthcare Agents

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January 15, 2018 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View

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2017

2017

December 18, 2017 – US Brand Net Pricing Growth 0.2% in 3Q17

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December 4, 2017 – AMZN: A Pharmacy Role Beyond Rx Fulfillment

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November 5, 2017 – AMZN: How to enter (and ultimately dominate) pharmacy

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October 22, 2017 – Puerto Rico Pharma Supply Part 2: Who has back-up sites off the island?

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October 11, 2017 – Reliance on Puerto Rico Manufacturing, by Major Pharmaceutical Firm

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September 28, 2017 – AMGN: Tempering Repatha Expectations in the Wake of Conservative ACC/NLA Recommendations

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September 19, 2017 – US Rx brand price inflation falls to 1.3% in real terms

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August 16, 2017 -ABBV: The Contrarian Case for US Humira Trend

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August 13, 2017 – Repeal / Replace is Dead – What Happens Next

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July 16, 2017 – Pricing Power and New Product Flow as a Basis for Biopharma Stock Selection

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June 26, 2017 – Senate Health Bill: Odds Slightly Against Passage; Would Effectively Shift Medicaid Beneficiaries to Private Insurance

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June 12, 2017 Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View

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June 5, 2017 – US Rx net pricing trend through 1Q17

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May 22, 2017 – BMY/MRK/Roche/AZN/INCY: Text analysis of ASCO 2017 abstracts for checkpoint research activity

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May 18, 2017 – ABBV’s US Humira trend: Why genuine slowdown in end-user demand, and corresponding growth in channel inventories is a likely scenario

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May 4, 2017 – AHCA: Welcome to Today’s Vote, Here’s Your Program

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May 1, 2017 – Roche: The Bull Case for Ocrevus, and the Corresponding Bear Case for BIIB

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April 20, 2017 – AMGN: More than half of US Repatha demand will come from Part D; nearly half of Part D users should have monthly OOP costs for Repatha less than $60

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April 5, 2017 – US Rx net pricing trend through 4Q16

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April 2, 2017 – AMGN: Repatha potential as much as 4X higher than consensus

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March 16, 2017 – RINO Stampede: Why the Republican Left will Kill the AHCA

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March 14, 2017 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines

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March 8 2017 – Health reform bill would shrink Medicaid, and slow its growth; the bill is unlikely to pass in its present form

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March 2, 2017 – The (Senate) Politics of Medicaid Reform; Why Medicaid Shrinks Under Block Grants; Who Wins or Loses

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February 23, 2017 – BMY: A Comprehensive Look at Immuno-Oncology’s Next-Generation Approaches, and Why BMY is Best Positioned

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February 1, 2017 – BMY: Opdivo/Yervoy For Sale, Current Bid: $0. Seems a Bit Low

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January 26, 2017 – WBA could simply close 1,000 (or more) RAD outlets and still have an accretive deal that meets its strategic needs

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January 18, 2017 – US Brand Pharmaceutical Net Prices Fell 0.3% in 3Q16

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January 11, 2017 – LLY/ESRX/Blink Health Insulin Discount Program: Payday Loans for Prescriptions

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January 9, 2017 – Channel Wars: Who Profits from Follow-On Biologics / Biosimilars?

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2016

2016

December 19, 2016 – ABBV: Humira Pricing … Let’s Play a Game

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November 29, 2016 – The (Likely) Republican Playbook to Defund and Replace the ACA

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November 14, 2016 – Whip This: The Politico-Economics of ACA Defunding

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November 8, 2016 – WBA/RAD: Why the deal goes through with modest FTC concessions

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November 1, 2016 – ABBV: Trailing US Humira Growth Driven More or Less Equally by Net Sales and Volume Gains; Looking Forward, either Net Price or Volume Likely to be Negative

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October 27, 2016 – CNC, MOH, WCG: Beneficiaries of a Likely Post-Obama Medicaid Expansion

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October 10, 2016 – Why Opdivo is still best positioned in NSCLC

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October 5, 2016 – US Rx Net Pricing Trends thru 2Q16

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September 27, 2016 – IPAB Likely to Trigger in 1H17; Savings Target Small; One-Time Bump in ACA Pharmaceutical Fee and Medical Device Tax Most Likely Result

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September 19, 2016 – Despite EpiPen, Voters’ Interest in Federal Rx Pricing Policy Appears Weak

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September 11, 2016 – ESRX’ new DMARD formulary points to slowing US sales for Humira(ABBV) and Enbrel(AMGN), with outright sales declines possible. Cimzia(UCB) and Simponi(JNJ) are beneficiaries

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September 7, 2016 – Adverse selection on the HIEs is real, and accelerating; why this makes drug price reform unlikely in the early days of the next administration

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August 31, 2016 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines

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August 17, 2016 – BMY: The best positioned company in NSCLC

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August 8, 2016 – BMY: Why Opdivo still may dominate NSCLC

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June 27, 2016 – ABBV, AMGN, and US DMARD Pricing: The Dog and Its Reflection

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June 9, 2016 – ABBV/ENTA: Update on HCV

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May 25, 2016 – US Rx Brand Pricing: Trailing analysis of net price growth; forward look at brands / companies facing greatest risks

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May 16, 2016 – ENDP Likely to See Further Pressure; Why the Underlying Patterns May Be Good for Wholesale / Retail JVs

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April 19, 2016 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines

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April 13, 2016 – AGN: Balance of Power Between AGN and Formulary Managers

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April 5, 2016 – ALPMF / ^BTK: Astellas, Xtandi, and the Siren Song of March-in Rights

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March 28, 2016 – VRX, ENDP, HZNP, and MNK – A Comparison of US Pricing Risks

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March 8, 2016 – NVS: Entresto Expectations are (2x) Too High

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February 25, 2016 – CYH, HCA, LPNT, THC: Hospitals are cheap, but you shouldn’t buy them – here’s why

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February 3, 2016 – GILD/MRK/ABBV: Why Everyone Wins if US Pricing Falls (In a Certain Way)

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January 20, 2016 – HUM/UNH: Weak Flu Season Likely Benefit to 4Q15 EPS

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January 12, 2016 – HZNP / MNK: The Balance of Power Between HZNP / MNK and Formulary Managers

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January 5, 2016 – VRX: The Balance of Power Between Valeant and Formulary Managers – An Empiric Framing

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2015

2015

December 9, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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December 7, 2015 – Why Adverse Selection Pressures are Building Rapidly on the HIEs

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November 12, 2015 – ABBV: Viekira Pak Likely to See More Safety-Related Formulary Losses; US Humira Pricing Likely to Slow if Payors No Longer Anticipate Follow-Ons in the Near Term

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October 27, 2015 – WBA/RAD: Strategic Rationale; Estimate of FTC-Related Divestitures

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October 26, 2015 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated (and Expanded) List

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October 23, 2015 – ABBV: FDA Re-labelling of Viekira Pak

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October 22, 2015 – VRX: Belt & Braces Analysis of US Rx Price / Volume. Price Still Wins

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October 14, 2015 – While Gulliver Slept: The Rapid Pace and Fragile Pre-Conditions of VRX’s US Pricing Power

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September 30, 2015 – The US Congress and Prescription Drug Pricing

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September 28, 2015 – Emerging Market Demand for Western Pharma Brands Slowing; NVS most affected, ABBV least

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September 16, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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September 8, 2015 – Why US Brand Rx Pricing Has Stalled, and Who’s Most at Risk

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July 28, 2015 – ABBV: A Reluctant Farewell to the HCV Bull Case

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July 26, 2015 – SNY/REGN: Eligible Patients and Sales Potential for Praluent

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July 23, 2015 – US Generic Inflation Pauses in 2Q15, But is Very Likely to Resume

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July 15, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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July 6, 2015 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated (and Expanded) List

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June 23, 2015 – CVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?

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June 16, 2015 – SNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent

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June 16, 2015 – A Strategic Look at CVS/TGT; Why We’re Still Bullish on RAD

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June 7, 2015 – ACA at the Supreme Court: Subsidies Are Here to Stay, Even if SCOTUS Finds for King 

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June 2, 2015 – US Drug Pricing Stalls. Uh-Oh …

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May 4, 2015 – A WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO as a Counterweight to Narrowing Retail Pharmacy Networks

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May 4, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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April 21, 2015 – ABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15

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April 15, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic

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April 13, 2015 – SNY: The (multi-faceted) Bull Case

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April 6, 2015 – CVS, MCK, RAD, WBA: How WBA or CVS can fight narrowing retail networks – buy RAD

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March 30, 2015 – AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002

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March 17, 2015 – AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN

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March 12, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica’s US Pricing Has Room to Grow

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February 25, 2015 – WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter

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February 15, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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February 9, 2015 – Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation

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February 5, 2015 – Why ABBV is Still a Value

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January 23, 2015 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update

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January 20, 2015 – The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s

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January 9, 2015 – Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings

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January 6, 2015 – R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive

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2014

2014

December 22, 2014 – ABBV HCV Regiment Approved; Further Upward Revisions to Consensus Likely

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December 8, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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December 5, 2014 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise

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November 20, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

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November 17, 2014 – Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History

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November 11, 2014 – SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?

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November 6, 2014 – What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this Squares (or not) with Fundamentals

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October 20, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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October 14, 2014 – WAG/RAD: Pressure on generic dispensing margins likely to be much more permanent than guidance implies

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October 6, 2014 – Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know

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September 22, 2014 – GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case

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September 2, 2014 – ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari

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August 26, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

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August 12, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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August 7, 2014 – CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for Current-Generation Hepatitis C Treatments

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July 28, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates

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July 10, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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July 7, 2014 – The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing

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June 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 2Q14 Estimates

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June 24, 2014 – Net HIE Premiums Growing Faster Than Incomes; This is Likely to Accelerate

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June 17, 2014 – Early Look at 2015 HIE Rates: Avg. Increase = 10%

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June 10, 2014 – Large Pharma’s ‘Established’ & ‘Growth’ NEWCOs: A Solomonic Path to More Efficient R&D?

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June 3, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

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May 23, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 2Q14 Estimates

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May 8, 2014 – Co-Pay Cards & the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth Part II – The HIE ‘Test Case’

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May 7, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

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May 5, 2014 – MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers

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April 28, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data

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April 23, 2014 – PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger

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April 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates

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April 16, 2014 – Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued

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April 14, 2014 – ACA Enrollment Round-Up

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April 7, 2014 – Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide

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April 2, 2014 – The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low

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March 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates

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March 5, 2014 – The Trouble with Hospital Pricing

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February 26, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 1Q14 Estimates

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February 20, 2014 – ACA Enrollment and Adverse Selection Pressures – An Update

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February 19, 2014 – Harvest Time for the Bill Collectors? The ACA’s Narrow Hospital Networks May Spur Demand for Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) Services

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February 3, 2014 – Your (HIE-based) Plan Doesn’t Cover That: A Comparison of Drug Formularies On and Off the Health Insurance Exchanges

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January 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data

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January 20, 2014 – Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website

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January 19, 2014 – Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges

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January 7, 2014 – MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity

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January 5, 2014 – Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies

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2013

2013

December 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 4Q13 Estimates

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December 15, 2013 – Why Adverse Selection is Likely on the HIEs: A Simple Model of Enrollment Behavior Estimates

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December 1, 2013 – Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014

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November 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates

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November 19, 2013 – NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced

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November 17, 2013 – ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent

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October 24, 2013 – LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent

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October 23, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season

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October 17, 2013 – DVA / FMS: Generic Epogen Accretive to EPS

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September 24, 2013 – A Simple Yardstick for HIE Enrollment: CBO’s Revised Estimate Looks Like an Outer Bound

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September 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q13 Estimate

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September 17, 2013 – Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard

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September 11, 2013 – SSR Health’s Hidden Pipeline Analysis: Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines

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September 4, 2013 – Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best

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August 30, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate

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August 27, 2013 – Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk

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August 7, 2013 – Health Insurers’ Participation on the Health Insurance Exchanges; and, Current-Market Premium and MLR Patterns by State

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July 22, 2013 – Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market

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July 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate

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July 8, 2013 – The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay

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June 26, 2013 – The SSR Healthcare Quarterly, Inaugural Edition

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June 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 2Q13 Estimate

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May 28, 2013 – PBM Bear Thesis Update: The AWP Alternatives Will Soon Be Here

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May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate

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May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges

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May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy, or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers

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April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses

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April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate

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April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values

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April 2, 2013 – Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean

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March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC

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March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?

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March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate

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March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables

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March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013

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February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate

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February 11, 2013 – Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector

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January 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike

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January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand

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January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP

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2012

2012

December 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike

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December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL

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December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

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November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate

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November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines

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October 26, 2012 – Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise

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October 22, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate

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October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects

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October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

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September 17, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

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September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds

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September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth

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August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates

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August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie

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July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling

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July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%

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July 9, 2012 – Medicaid Post-SCOTUS: Nevermind Whether States Choose to Expand; It Appears States Have the Choice to Shrink

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June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now

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June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%

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June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable

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May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand

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May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization

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May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand Estimates Growth within 50bps, Before Earnings are Reported

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May 2, 2012 – Is There a Cyclical Rebound in US Healthcare Demand? Evidence to Date from 1Q12 Results

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April 16, 2012 – Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give

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March 27, 2012 – Why Losing the Individual Mandate is Good for HMOs, and other Earnings Consequences of Various Supreme Court Outcomes

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March 12, 2012 – Accelerating Growth in Hospitals’, Physicians’ Offices and Other Care Settings’ Labor Hours Signals Improving Healthcare

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February 26, 2012 – Large Cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable

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February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks

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January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power

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January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (i.e. Temporary) Reasons; Volume-Sensitive Names are Undervalued

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2011

2011

November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power

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October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court – What You Should Know

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October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: R&D Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis

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October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators

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October 4, 2011 – A Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements: AMP v. NADAC

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September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP – Why This Matters

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September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection

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August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Toward Replacing AWP

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August 15, 2011 – The Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from the Budget Control Act

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August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011

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July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case

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July 11, 2011 – Why Employers Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance – A Simplified View

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June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR Cycle?

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May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?

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May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins

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April 27, 2011 – The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs

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April 6, 2011 – CMS Says AMP is Coming; Acquisition Cost Data Reduce Generic Costs 37% in ‘Bama; Why Ortho Demand May Slow in the Mid to Longer-Term

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March 22, 2011 – Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on States; Negative for Hospitals and the Drug Trades

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March 2, 2011 – Post-2014 Reform-Related Volume Gains are Modest

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February 10, 2011 – PFE decides to shrink; HHS ends AWP; and, drug pricing hits a speedtrap

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January 26, 2011 – Ranked Preferences across Healthcare, Sub-Sector by Sub-Sector

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January 5, 2011 – Co-Pay Cards and the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth

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2010

2010

December 1, 2010 – Demand Trend Improves 4Q, Ortho & Commodity Suppliers Benefit Most; Why HDL-C Drugs May Be Bigger than You Think

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November 10, 2010 – Uncertainty and Motive in Pharmacy Dispensing Mark-Ups

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October 29, 2010 – Why Generic Dispensing Margins (Eventually) Must Fall

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October 3, 2010 – What a Republican House Means for Health Reform

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September 22, 2010 – The Skeptic’s Guide to Drug Stock Selection

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September 7, 2010 – Why US Healthcare Demand Appears to Be Falling

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August 24, 2010 – Single-Payor (read European) Governments and Your Healthcare Portfolio

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July 30, 2010 – Consumers add Risk, Insurers add Power; Consequences for Providers and Suppliers

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July 8, 2010 – Big Pharma’s Tenuous Grip on the Emerging Markets

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June 15, 2010 – Why UNH and WLP Appear Better Positioned for Reform than AET or CI

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May 26, 2010 – Why the Average Employer Will Drop Health Insurance in 2014

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May 10, 2010 – The Bigger Truth About Medicaid Drug Price Effects; PBM Price Competition; and Why Insurers Are Still a Buy

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April 26, 2010 – The Practical Boundaries of Health Insurance Regulation

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April 19, 2010 – Why the Market Assumes too Much Margin Pressure on Insurers, too Little on Innovators

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April 5, 2010 – Why Insurers Work in a Recovery; Introducing our Model of Private Insurance Premiums and MLRs

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March 29, 2010 – Three Reform Realities That Aren’t Priced In

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March 18, 2010 – Handicapping the Whip Count – Odds Still Against Passage, But Margins Are Thin

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March 10, 2010 – PBM Gross Margins – This Looks Like the End of the Cycle

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March 4, 2010 – Last Chance Healthcare Reform – Betting the Ranch on a Weak Hand

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February 26, 2010 – Post-Summit Health Politics – Why Large Scale Reforms Almost Certainly Cannot Pass

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February 17, 2010 – Introducing our Healthcare Demand Model

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February 3, 2010 – Health Insurers’ Anti-Trust Exemption

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February 1, 2010 – Mopping Up Residual Reform Risks; Why Consensus Expectations at the Sub-Sector Level Don’t Add Up

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January 20, 2010 – The Political (as opposed to Procedural) Death of Health Reform

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January 12, 2010 – Gross Margin Expectations Too High for Pharma, Too Low for Insurers; Why the House Won’t Roll Over on Health Reform

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2009

2009

December 21, 2009 – Prospects for Conference; HMO Relevance of New Senate Provisions; Re-Importation is Back

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December 16, 2009 – Risks to Passage Remain Where They Have Been All Along – In Shifting Voter Opinions, & In the Gap Between the House and Senate

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December 2, 2009 – The Biggest Health Reform Worry That No One Seems to be Watching; Labor’s Interests and Reform Prospects; and, Lessons from Massachusetts

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November 17, 2009 – Why Health Reform Legislation Won’t Pass; More About Insurers’ 2010 Margins

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November 2, 2009 – 2010 HMO and PBM GM’s Expand; The Public Plan Has the Blues

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October 20, 2009 – Despite Near-Term Uncertainties, Health Insurers are Nearly 40 Percent Undervalued

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October 6, 2009 – The New Abnormal: How Health Costs Derail Our Return to Historic Notions of Fiscal Balance

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September 21, 2009 – Why the Senate Finance Health Reform Bill Doesn’t Work

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September 6, 2009 – Health Reform Legislation is Unlikely to be Either Very Large or Very Complex; Risk to Insurers Falls

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August 18, 2009 – The Political Economics and Investment Relevance of American Health Reform

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