Hidden Pipeline Models
SSR Health Hidden Pipeline Valuation Model (with live Bloomberg data links) [Only users with an active Bloomberg subscription (including Excel add-in functionality) should download this file]
SSR Health Hidden Pipeline Valuation Model (Bloomberg data links broken)
Previously published research
Comprehensive summary, August 2009 – Present
September 11, 2019 – US Rx Brand Net Prices Fell 5.8 Percent in 2Q19
August 6, 2019 – The Prescription Drug Pricing Reduction Act (PDPRA)
April 23, 2019 – Medicare for All: Why it Can’t Happen … Yet
April 1, 2019 – ANTM, CI, UNH: Have the commercial-predominant HMOs peaked?
February 18, 2019 -AMGN/MDCO/REGN/SNY: PCSK9 Pricing Update
January 16, 2019 – Moving WMT out of CVS’ retail pharmacy networks makes no obvious sense
December 12, 2018 – US Rx Net Prices Fall 5.1 percent (real) in 3Q18
November 19, 2018 – AMZN & OMI: Two Birds, One Stone?
November 4, 2018 – The International Pricing Index (IPI), and Who’s Most Affected (AMGN, Roche, UCB)
October 28, 2018 – AMGN’s Clever Curveball
October 8, 2018 – AMRN: Priced for Perfection
September 25, 2018 – Co-Pay Accumulators: Analysis of Company Level Effects
September 20, 2018 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View
September 11, 2018 – The Co-Pay Accumulator Playbook
September 4, 2018 – US Rx Brand Prices Fall 5.8 percent
August 8, 2018 – Prescription Drug Rebates and the AKS Safe Harbor
July 10, 2018 – US Drug Pricing: A Closer Look at Removing the 100 percent Limit on Medicaid Rebates
June 18, 2018 – Rx brand US net pricing as of 1Q18: Analysis of company level patterns
June 4, 2018 – U.S. Rx Brand Pricing Fell 5.6 percent (real) in 1Q18 – Blame Co-Pay Accumulators
April 3, 2018 – WMT/HUM: Quick First Read Shows Little Compelling Benefit
March 20, 2018 – AMGN/REGN/SNY: Top-line ODYSSEY results do not show a mortality benefit
February 8, 2018 – BMY/MRK: Why CM227 is very good news for BMY, and not such bad news for MRK
January 15, 2018 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View
December 18, 2017 – US Brand Net Pricing Growth 0.2% in 3Q17
December 4, 2017 – AMZN: A Pharmacy Role Beyond Rx Fulfillment
November 5, 2017 – AMZN: How to enter (and ultimately dominate) pharmacy
October 22, 2017 – Puerto Rico Pharma Supply Part 2: Who has back-up sites off the island?
October 11, 2017 – Reliance on Puerto Rico Manufacturing, by Major Pharmaceutical Firm
September 19, 2017 – US Rx brand price inflation falls to 1.3% in real terms
August 16, 2017 -ABBV: The Contrarian Case for US Humira Trend
August 13, 2017 – Repeal / Replace is Dead – What Happens Next
July 16, 2017 – Pricing Power and New Product Flow as a Basis for Biopharma Stock Selection
June 12, 2017 Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View
June 5, 2017 – US Rx net pricing trend through 1Q17
May 4, 2017 – AHCA: Welcome to Today’s Vote, Here’s Your Program
May 1, 2017 – Roche: The Bull Case for Ocrevus, and the Corresponding Bear Case for BIIB
April 5, 2017 – US Rx net pricing trend through 4Q16
April 2, 2017 – AMGN: Repatha potential as much as 4X higher than consensus
March 16, 2017 – RINO Stampede: Why the Republican Left will Kill the AHCA
March 14, 2017 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines
February 1, 2017 – BMY: Opdivo/Yervoy For Sale, Current Bid: $0. Seems a Bit Low
January 18, 2017 – US Brand Pharmaceutical Net Prices Fell 0.3% in 3Q16
January 11, 2017 – LLY/ESRX/Blink Health Insulin Discount Program: Payday Loans for Prescriptions
January 9, 2017 – Channel Wars: Who Profits from Follow-On Biologics / Biosimilars?
December 19, 2016 – ABBV: Humira Pricing … Let’s Play a Game
November 29, 2016 – The (Likely) Republican Playbook to Defund and Replace the ACA
November 14, 2016 – Whip This: The Politico-Economics of ACA Defunding
November 8, 2016 – WBA/RAD: Why the deal goes through with modest FTC concessions
October 27, 2016 – CNC, MOH, WCG: Beneficiaries of a Likely Post-Obama Medicaid Expansion
October 10, 2016 – Why Opdivo is still best positioned in NSCLC
October 5, 2016 – US Rx Net Pricing Trends thru 2Q16
September 19, 2016 – Despite EpiPen, Voters’ Interest in Federal Rx Pricing Policy Appears Weak
August 31, 2016 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines
August 17, 2016 – BMY: The best positioned company in NSCLC
August 8, 2016 – BMY: Why Opdivo still may dominate NSCLC
June 27, 2016 – ABBV, AMGN, and US DMARD Pricing: The Dog and Its Reflection
June 9, 2016 – ABBV/ENTA: Update on HCV
April 19, 2016 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines
April 13, 2016 – AGN: Balance of Power Between AGN and Formulary Managers
April 5, 2016 – ALPMF / ^BTK: Astellas, Xtandi, and the Siren Song of March-in Rights
March 28, 2016 – VRX, ENDP, HZNP, and MNK – A Comparison of US Pricing Risks
March 8, 2016 – NVS: Entresto Expectations are (2x) Too High
February 3, 2016 – GILD/MRK/ABBV: Why Everyone Wins if US Pricing Falls (In a Certain Way)
January 20, 2016 – HUM/UNH: Weak Flu Season Likely Benefit to 4Q15 EPS
January 12, 2016 – HZNP / MNK: The Balance of Power Between HZNP / MNK and Formulary Managers
December 9, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
December 7, 2015 – Why Adverse Selection Pressures are Building Rapidly on the HIEs
November 12, 2015 – ABBV: Viekira Pak Likely to See More Safety-Related Formulary Losses; US Humira Pricing Likely to Slow if Payors No Longer Anticipate Follow-Ons in the Near Term
October 27, 2015 – WBA/RAD: Strategic Rationale; Estimate of FTC-Related Divestitures
October 26, 2015 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated (and Expanded) List
October 23, 2015 – ABBV: FDA Re-labelling of Viekira Pak
October 22, 2015 – VRX: Belt & Braces Analysis of US Rx Price / Volume. Price Still Wins
October 14, 2015 – While Gulliver Slept: The Rapid Pace and Fragile Pre-Conditions of VRX’s US Pricing Power
September 30, 2015 – The US Congress and Prescription Drug Pricing
September 28, 2015 – Emerging Market Demand for Western Pharma Brands Slowing; NVS most affected, ABBV least
September 16, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
September 8, 2015 – Why US Brand Rx Pricing Has Stalled, and Who’s Most at Risk
July 28, 2015 – ABBV: A Reluctant Farewell to the HCV Bull Case
July 26, 2015 – SNY/REGN: Eligible Patients and Sales Potential for Praluent
July 23, 2015 – US Generic Inflation Pauses in 2Q15, But is Very Likely to Resume
July 15, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
July 6, 2015 – Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated (and Expanded) List
June 23, 2015 – CVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?
June 16, 2015 – SNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent
June 16, 2015 – A Strategic Look at CVS/TGT; Why We’re Still Bullish on RAD
June 7, 2015 – ACA at the Supreme Court: Subsidies Are Here to Stay, Even if SCOTUS Finds for King
June 2, 2015 – US Drug Pricing Stalls. Uh-Oh …
May 4, 2015 – A WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO as a Counterweight to Narrowing Retail Pharmacy Networks
May 4, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
April 21, 2015 – ABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15
April 15, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic
April 13, 2015 – SNY: The (multi-faceted) Bull Case
April 6, 2015 – CVS, MCK, RAD, WBA: How WBA or CVS can fight narrowing retail networks – buy RAD
March 30, 2015 – AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002
March 18, 2015 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
March 17, 2015 – AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN
March 12, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica’s US Pricing Has Room to Grow
February 25, 2015 – WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter
February 17, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
February 9, 2015 – Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation
February 5, 2015 – Why ABBV is Still a Value
January 23, 2015 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update
January 20, 2015 – The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s
January 9, 2015 – Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings
January 6, 2015 – R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive
December 22, 2014 – ABBV HCV Regiment Approved; Further Upward Revisions to Consensus Likely
December 8, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
December 5, 2014 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise
November 20, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
November 17, 2014 – Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History
November 11, 2014 – SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?
November 6, 2014 – What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this Squares (or not) with Fundamentals
October 20, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
October 14, 2014 – WAG/RAD: Pressure on generic dispensing margins likely to be much more permanent than guidance implies
October 6, 2014 – Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know
September 22, 2014 – GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case
September 2, 2014 – ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari
August 26, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
August 12, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
August 7, 2014 – CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for Current-Generation Hepatitis C Treatments
July 28, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates
July 10, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
July 7, 2014 – The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing
June 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 2Q14 Estimates
June 24, 2014 – Net HIE Premiums Growing Faster Than Incomes; This is Likely to Accelerate
June 17, 2014 – Early Look at 2015 HIE Rates: Avg. Increase = 10%
June 10, 2014 – Large Pharma’s ‘Established’ & ‘Growth’ NEWCOs: A Solomonic Path to More Efficient R&D?
June 3, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
May 23, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 2Q14 Estimates
May 15, 2014 – Poor R&D Productivity as a Self-Inflicted Injury: Who’s Missing the Most Toes, and Why
May 9, 2014 – BIG Monkeys & a Looming Intervention: Pharma’s US Pricing Addiction
May 8, 2014 – Co-Pay Cards & the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth Part II – The HIE ‘Test Case’
May 7, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
May 5, 2014 – MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers
April 28, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data
April 23, 2014 – PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger
April 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates
April 16, 2014 – Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued
April 14, 2014 – ACA Enrollment Round-Up
April 7, 2014 – Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide
April 2, 2014 – The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low
March 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates
March 5, 2014 – The Trouble with Hospital Pricing
February 26, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 1Q14 Estimates
February 20, 2014 – ACA Enrollment and Adverse Selection Pressures – An Update
February 19, 2014 – Harvest Time for the Bill Collectors? The ACA’s Narrow Hospital Networks May Spur Demand for Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) Services
February 3, 2014 – Your (HIE-based) Plan Doesn’t Cover That: A Comparison of Drug Formularies On and Off the Health Insurance Exchanges
January 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data
January 20, 2014 – Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website
January 19, 2014 – Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges
January 7, 2014 – MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity
January 5, 2014 – Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies
December 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 4Q13 Estimates
December 15, 2013 – Why Adverse Selection is Likely on the HIEs: A Simple Model of Enrollment Behavior
December 1, 2013 – Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014
November 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates
November 19, 2013 – NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced
November 17, 2013 – ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent
October 24, 2013 – LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent
October 23, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season
October 17, 2013 – DVA / FMS: Generic Epogen Accretive to EPS
September 24, 2013 – A Simple Yardstick for HIE Enrollment: CBO’s Revised Estimate Looks Like an Outer Bound
September 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q13 Estimate
September 17, 2013 – Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard
September 11, 2013 – SSR Health’s ‘Hidden Pipeline’ Analysis: Relative Price and Value of Pre-Phase III Pipelines
September 4, 2013 – Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best
August 30, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate
August 27, 2013 – Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk
August 7, 2013 – Health Insurers’ Participation on the Health Insurance Exchanges; and Current-Market Premium and MLR Patterns by State
July 22, 2013 – Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market
July 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate
July 8, 2013 – The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay
June 26, 2013 – The SSR Healthcare Quarterly, Inaugural Edition
June 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Interim 2Q13 Estimate
May 28, 2013 – PBM Bear Thesis Update: The AWP Alternatives Will Soon Be Here
May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate
May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges
May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers
April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses
April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate
April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values
April 2, 2013 – Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean
March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC
March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?
March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate
March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables
March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013
February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate
February 11, 2013 -Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector
January 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike
January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand
January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP
December 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike
December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL
December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated
November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate
November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines
October 26, 2012 – Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise
October 22, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate
October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects
October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind
September 17, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows
September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds
September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth
August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates
August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie
July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling
July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%
July 9, 2012 – Medicaid Post-SCOTUS: Nevermind Whether States Choose to Expand; It Appears States Have the Choice to Shrink
June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now
June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%
June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable
May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand
May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization
May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand
May 2, 2012 – Is There a Cyclical Rebound in US Healthcare Demand? Evidence to Date from 1Q12 Results
April 16, 2012 – Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give
March 27, 2012 – Why Losing the Individual Mandate is Good for HMOs, and other Earnings Consequences of Various Supreme Court Outcomes
March 12, 2012 – Accelerating Growth in Hospitals’, Physicians’ Offices and Other Care Settings’ Labor Hours Signals Improving Healthcare Demand
February 26, 2012 – Large cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable
February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks
January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power
January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (Temporary) Reasons
November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power
October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court
October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis
October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators
October 3, 2011 – Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements – AMP v NADAC
September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP
September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug Stock Selection
August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Towards Replacing AWP
August 15, 2011 – Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from BCA
August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011
July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case
July 11, 2011 – Why Employer Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance: A Simplified View
June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR cycle?
May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?
May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins